HOW DO AMERICANS VOTE?

With their gut


By Zhen Ming


QUICK question, dude - how many Deputy Prime Ministers do we have?

Please, please say you know the answer (it rhymes with flu).

Otherwise, man, we will be like the fellows in the US.More people there know the name of J K Rowling's boy wizard Harry Potter (57 per cent) than they do their vice president, Mr Dick Cheney (50 per cent), according to a survey by public opinion pollster Zogby International.

But wait, this name-recall thingy gets worse. According to the same survey, only 27 per cent could name both of their US senators.

But American voters are like that, you know.

In 1992, the one fact that almost every American voter knew about George HW Bush, besides that he was the incumbent US president, was that he loathed broccoli. A close second was the name of his pet dog, Millie, which 86 per cent said they knew.

But when it came to the positions of Bush and his opponent, Bill Clinton, on 'the important issues', American voters were, shall I say, 'a tad clueless'.

Just 15 per cent, for instance, knew that both candidates supported the death penalty.

American voters have what US psychologists now euphemistically call 'cognitive-processing limitations' - most cannot, or will not, learn about and remember candidates' records or positions.

This means they must substitute something else for that 'missing knowledge'.

A large fraction, in fact, use political party as that substitute - some 60 per cent typically choose a candidate solely, or largely, by party affiliation.

Single-issue voters

The next criterion is candidates' positions on issues - single-issue voters, in particular, will never even consider a candidate they disagree with.

Asserts political scientist Richard Lau of Rutgers University: 'That's when you get people voting by heuristics (cognitive shortcuts) and going with their gut, with who they most identify with, or with how the candidates make them feel.'

Because most American voters are not computers, willing and able to remember and analyse candidates' every position, they rely on, what some psychologists now call, 'gut rationality'.

In the 1992 campaign, for instance, when George HW Bush looked at his watch during a debate with Bill Clinton, the message that 'gut rationality' received was that 'Bush didn't want to be there'. Read his eyes, folks - you just can't trust him.

In contrast, during the debate, Clinton walked over to a questioner in the audience; as he looked into her eyes and spoke about the economy, she nodded and nodded.

That one small move led hundreds of thousands of Americans to go with their gut, change their minds, and vote for Clinton.

In other words, get real, all you political pundits out there. Don't expect most Americans to vote on 'the issues' - they're more likely than not to vote only for whom they like.

Childhood agendas

Explains Rev Sam Sewell, an ordained Christian clergyman and a psychotherapist: 'Ask any priest, pastor, rabbi, teacher, psychotherapist, supervisor or elected official and they will be happy to confirm that the people they deal with are all trying to work out their childhood agendas on any available authority figure.

'Some of us want a 'sugar daddy' and a 'sugar family' who takes care of us, and we cede our personal power and freedom to this Democrat Parent/Party who promises security.

'Some of us want a 'strong daddy' who will protect us from danger and who expects us to be strong as well, and we vote for a Republican Parent/Party.'

This year, the structural factors that the Democrats think favour them certainly exist. Americans are in a morose mood about the economy and the country in general. The unpopularity of President George W Bush - the other Bush - will act as a drag on Republicans.

Yet as November approaches, Democrat nominee Barack Obama and his Republican rival John McCain are still running neck and neck. It's a statistical dead heat but Mr McCain may now have a slight edge, if the latest polls are any indication.

Here's my politically incorrect hint: According to a recent New York Times poll, whilst only 5 per cent of American voters said they would not vote for a black candidate, 27 per cent said they thought the US was not yet ready for a black president.

Americans, in the end, are no worse, or no better, than the rest of us. They approach their politicians the same way they approach other people and issues, like who they want to marry and which breakfast cereal they prefer.

Expect, therefore, US political campaign ads in the weeks ahead to aim for the American heart, even when they seem to be addressed to the head.

As I see it, the campaign that best harnesses this 'power of the heart' thingy is just about certain to see its candidate at the White House.

And, to think, the fate of the world economy will have to ultimately depend on this go-with-the-gut voting decision.

Oh, what a system, you know. But somehow it works.


Source: The New Paper, Thu 11 Sep 2008